Vantagepoint Blog

Investment management insights and news on a wide range of topics from Vantagepoint Investment Advisers


The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: A Market Reality Check?

Heightened volatility returned to the major indexes in recent days, sending them sharply lower as many of the high-flying tech companies that had fueled the market’s advance over the summer sold off, only to stage a partial rebound on Wednesday.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Jobs, Executive Orders, and the Markets

The latest report on the employment front brought a dose of positive news about the economy’s ability to claw its way out of the hole caused by the COVID-19-inspired shutdowns. But while the job increases are certainly positive, the markets continue to keep their eyes trained on federal stimulus efforts.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: COVID-19 — Are We Ready for Some Football?

As we round out July, football season is just around the corner. Training camps are starting to gear up, both for professional and college players. But this year is unlike any other.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: COVID-19 — Taking the Nation’s Economic Pulse

The latest news on the economic front has shown some encouraging signs that the country’s businesses have started to rebound from the widespread shutdowns this spring. However, areas of concern remain, particularly in light of the COVID-19 virus’ recent spike in some parts of the country.

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First Flash – Second Quarter 2020

A summary of the market and economic developments during the second quarter.

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The Vantagepoint View – Second Quarter

A summary of Vantagepoint Investment Adviser’s latest 12-month outlook for the stock and bond markets.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: COVID-19 in the Rearview Mirror?

After carving out what is hopefully a bottom in late March, the markets notched a hefty rebound in the months that followed. The combination of policy support and economic optimism overwhelmed fears of COVID-19 and the worldwide chaos it brought, leading to hopes that the worst effects would be visible only in the rearview mirror. However, over the past week, evidence of the spread of COVID-19 in both the U.S. and overseas resurfaced with a vengeance.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Do the Markets Remember There’s an Upcoming Election?

After weeks of pricing in bleak, worst-case scenarios in late February and much of March, the market now seems to see few if any clouds on the horizon. The major stock indexes are flirting with their old highs and counting on the Fed’s ability to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and to intervene in any areas of the financial markets that might run into trouble.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: The Jobs Report, the Market, and the Real Economy

After months of seemingly non-stop negative headlines, Friday’s jobs report brought a much-needed dose of good news. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ widely watched monthly payroll report showed the economy added an impressive 2.5 million jobs in May after shedding -20.7 million jobs in April.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Reopenings, Protests, and the Markets

The protests, riots, and curfews that have evolved during the past week in multiple cities — along with the underlying issues that prompted them — have been tragic on many levels. However, while the situation is clearly very serious, so far, the financial markets seem to be looking ahead to the prospects for an economic restart and recovery later this year and into 2021 and 2022.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Trust, but Verify

Back in the Cold War days of the 1980s, as President Ronald Reagan was negotiating with the Soviet Union, he adopted and popularized an old Russian proverb: trust, but verify. The former president’s signature phrase increasingly comes to mind as we monitor the latest COVID-19 news and the market’s reaction to it.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: COVID-19 and the Great Outdoors

Across the nation, when it comes to decisions about how to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic, the choices for government officials in recent months have been stark: Close down your state or city and strangle your economy and businesses in an effort to save lives or open it up and potentially put your citizens — particularly the elderly — at risk.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: The Unemployment Tsunami

The market expected the latest monthly payroll report to be bad. And a close look at the numbers shows they were truly terrible. The April report, which was released Friday, May 8, 2020, was the first one that reflected a full month of economic activity (or in this case a lack thereof) since the COVID-19 pandemic and its accompanying shutdowns hit the U.S.

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COVID-19 & Market Volatility: Can Greater Asset Diversification in Defined-Contribution Plans Lead to Better Outcomes?

Matthew Brenner, Managing Vice President, Investments, and other panel guests discuss the COVID-19 economic shock and its impact on portfolios with Georgetown Center for Retirement Initiative’s Executive Director Angela Antonelli.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Models, Markets, and Reality

Models of all stripes, which offer a range of projected outcomes based on differing conditions and variables, have received greater attention and scrutiny in recent weeks.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: COVID-19 and the Lockdown Thaw

The quick switch to social distancing mode and the closure of large swaths of the U.S. and global economy have been among the most difficult and painful adjustments that individuals, businesses, and government officials have had to undertake in generations. And that was the easy part.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: (Un)Employment and the Great Reopening

Thursday brought the latest data on the (un)employment front, which was still largely — though not entirely — negative. In all, 4.4 million people filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, which is a staggering number that, prior to last month, would have dwarfed all weekly records. Now, however, it’s a sign that the pace of job losses seems to be slowing, which is definitely a good thing.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Supply Does Not Equal Demand — Oil Disruptions…And More

Nearly two months ago, coronavirus (COVID-19) fears sparked a stock market shock that would, in the weeks that followed, send the major indexes tumbling faster than they ever had before. And on Monday, April 20, those chaotic market declines spread to commodities — specifically, the oil market.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: The Return to Normalcy and the Question of Timing

The stock market’s sizable gains last week, combined with encouraging news that the number of coronavirus (COVID-19)-related deaths in the U.S. declined for two days in a row, have fostered hopes that the virus’ spread may be peaking in the U.S. And that has sparked speculation about when the quarantines and shutdowns will be lifted, and the nation’s economy reopened.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Coronavirus and the Markets — The Good News and the Realistic News

Let’s start with the good news. The major indexes scored sizable gains on Monday, April 6, 2020, amid hopes that the coronavirus’ (COVID-19) infection rate had hit its peak in New York City and that the proverbial curve is starting to bend due to the physical distancing measures in place. Monday’s market gains seemed to indicate that a slower infection rate in New York could mean that the disease is hitting its apex not just in that city, but in the nation as a whole.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Check Those Numbers — March Unemployment and Coronavirus Testing

After notching much-welcomed gains in the wake of the government’s $2 trillion stimulus package, the market’s abrupt pivot to bullishness seemed to waver as the first quarter wound to a close and the second quarter got underway. In recent days, the market has seen a lot of back-and-forth, indecisive action as traders digested the latest coronavirus (COVID-19) news, along with early reports showing the severity of the economic fallout that the disease is leaving in its wake.

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: A Bull Within a Bear Market?

The government’s sweeping $2 trillion stimulus package last week came as a welcome relief to the market. The far-reaching legislation includes tax refund checks, expanded unemployment aid, loans for large and small businesses, and funding for the nation’s health-care system, among other efforts aimed at staunching the economic bleeding. It comes on the heels of massive pushes by the Federal Reserve to shore of up the nation’s financial system.

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The Vantagepoint View – First Quarter 2020

Matthew Brenner, CFA®, Managing Vice President, Investments discusses the recent market volatility, as well as the Vantagepoint Investment Team’s longer-term outlook for the stock and bond markets

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Recent Market Gains and the Road Ahead

This week saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average log the biggest one-day increase in its history on Tuesday, followed by another gain on Wednesday. That marked the first time since the market’s ferocious sell-off began that it’s scored two days of back-to-back increases. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 followed a path similar to the Dow. Those market gains stemmed from the fact that the nation’s two major political parties appeared to have come to an agreement on a stimulus deal that is r...

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The Vantagepoint Market Perspective: Market Volatility and the Stimulus Package

Despite the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) recent herculean efforts to calm the waters, the markets remained volatile during Monday’s trading session. We believe that’s largely due to the fact that Congress' coronavirus (COVID-19)-inspired stimulus package is still being hashed out, as of the current writing.

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This information is intended for institutional use only and is not intended for individual investors or the general public.

Please note that this content was created as of the date indicated and reflects the authors’ opinions. These opinions are subject to change, without notice, due to market conditions or other factors.
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